QNB projects global trade to grow by over 4%

Doha, Qatar: The year 2025 delivered an apparent contradiction at the heart of the global economy. On the one hand, global trade volumes surprised to...

Doha, Qatar: The year 2025 delivered an apparent contradiction at the heart of the global economy. On the one hand, global trade volumes surprised to the upside, expanding at around 16%, well above the 4% long-term average and materially outpacing global GDP growth of 3%. On the other hand, the world’s largest economy implemented the most aggressive tariff increases seen in decades, culminating in the sweeping “Liberation Day” measures announced by the US in April.

At face value, these two developments appear irreconcilable. Conventional trade theory would suggest that sharply higher tariffs, particularly when imposed by a systemically important importer like the US, should weigh heavily on global trade flows. Yet reality proved more complex, QNB said in its economic commentary.

In our previous commentaries published after Liberation Day, we argued that global economic integration was unlikely to be reversed, despite the magnitude of the US tariff shock. Subsequent data have reinforced this view. Rather than collapsing, global trade accelerated through 2025, forcing a reassessment of how tariffs can interact with modern supply chains, corporate behaviour, and other macro-financial drivers. Four factors help explain why trade proved far more resilient than headline policy signals would suggest.

First, the threat of tariffs triggered a powerful front-loading cycle, particularly in the US. Well before the full implementation of the new tariff regime, US importers moved aggressively to pull forward shipments in order to lock in lower duty rates. This behaviour is visible across customs data, inventory accumulation, and port activity. US goods imports surged in late 2024 and early 2025, especially in tariff-exposed categories such as machinery, electronics, and intermediate manufacturing inputs. Import growth temporarily decoupled from domestic demand, reflecting precautionary stockpiling rather than end-use consumption.

This pattern is not unprecedented. Similar front loading dynamics were observed during the 2018-19 US-China trade war, when tariff announcements consistently led to short-term spikes in bilateral trade flows ahead of implementation deadlines. In 2025, however, the scale was larger and more geographically diversified, as firms sought to hedge against not only higher tariffs but also uncertainty around exemptions, retaliatory measures, and future policy escalations. Ironically, this defensive behaviour boosted measured global trade volumes, masking the longer-term drag that higher tariffs may yet impose.