What to expect as Trudeau meets Biden, López Obrador this week

The North American Leaders' Summit has grown larger and more formal since the original "Three Amigos" get-together then-U.S. president George W. Bush hosted in Texas in 2005.

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hosts U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on home turf in Mexico City this week, the global threats these regional partners must confront have also grown.

NALS (rhymes with "gals") — the acronym diplomats and stakeholders use for this sometimes irregular but now revived and recurring meeting of regional allies — now feels more businesslike than chummy. That's partly driven by the politics of the personalities at the table, but also because current challenges seem to require it.

"I wouldn't use Three Amigos anymore," said Carlo Dade, the director of the trade and investment centre at the Canada West Foundation, who also specializes in Latin American policy and holds a membership in the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations. "I think it's a subtle indication of a shift... a bit more formal, a bit more staid.

"You always had a sort of closeness to the relationship that was thrown off when [Donald] Trump came in," Dade said, referencing how the former U.S. president shunned this summit and frequently blamed Mexico for America's problems.

While Trump has been replaced by Biden, protectionist policies have stuck around in Washington. López Obrador was swept into office in 2018 on his own wave of nationalism, and now needs to cement his legacy as the back half of his six-year term plays out.

"He's a Trumpian sort of populist," Dade said. 

Even under warm Mexican skies, this January gathering of neighbours and business partners doesn't feel as sunny as it used to be.

But if it's cooler and more calculated, is that a problem — particularly for Canada and its heavily integrated economy?

"It's not about [warmth], it's about seriousness," said Amy Porges, a Washington-based trade lawyer who has watched trade files evolve over the decades since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented.

"Canada has always taken the United States more seriously than the U.S. takes Canada... [and] for López Obrador, domestic politics is everything."

Porges said the populist Mexican president wants to reverse decisions made by his predecessors that integrate Mexico with the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. needs Mexican co-operation on supply chains.

"The competition with China is the No. 1 issue for the Biden administration at this point," she said.

In a briefing at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Brian Nichols, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, suggested the Americans would soon announce more details as its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity evolves.