What the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah could mean for Israel and wars on its borders

The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is undoubtedly the highest-profile assassination carried out by Israel.   

Far less equivocal is how the death of Israel's arch-foe will change the dynamics of the country's numerous confrontations with adversaries on its borders that the charismatic leader of the Lebanon-based Shia militant group either commanded or lent his support to.

"This is not the first political leader assassinated in the Middle East, and this has never stopped anything or fixed anything at all," said Dimitri Diliani, a Palestinian activist from East Jerusalem and a spokesperson for the Fatah Reformist Democratic Faction.

An Israeli observer framed it differently, but nonetheless, echoed a similar note of caution.

"It's a major blow," said Yoram Schweitzer, a former Israeli lieutenant-colonel and intelligence officer who's now with the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think-tank.

"But I don't want to underestimate the capability of Hezbollah to try to recover because it has large depots of ammunition and [the organization] is still not destroyed."

Nasrallah, 64, led Hezbollah — which Canada and many other Western countries have labelled a terrorist entity — for more than three decades.   

Nasrallah inherited the top job in 1992 after Israeli Apache helicopters unleashed missiles on the motorcade of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, resulting in his death. 

With armaments, extensive fundraising and political support provided by Iran's anti-Western Islamic government, Nasrallah would go on to build Hezbollah into the most powerful militia in the Middle East — often referred to as a state within a state — packing a potent arsenal of long-range weapons and becoming a key part of the political fabric of Lebanon.

After Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, Nasrallah vowed his support for their cause. As Israel launched powerful air attacks against Gaza and then followed up with a ground invasion, Hezbollah joined the fight, albeit in a limited way, by targeting military facilities in Israel's north.

Israel claims that in the past year, Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets, missiles and shells across the border into northern parts of Israel, forcing roughly 60,000 Israelis from their homes.  

Two weeks ago, Israel's war cabinet made the decision to shift its major theatre of military operations from Gaza to the north, making the return of those residents one of its new war aims.

It began with an unprecedented stealth operation that caused thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon and parts of Syria to explode, many of which were used by Hezbollah members.

At least 32 people were killed and over 3,000 Lebanese people were injured, many of them children, in the attack that prompted widespread international criticism and was labelled by opponents as an act of terror.