What El Niño and a warming Atlantic Ocean could mean for the 2023 hurricane season
CBC
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting 12 to 17 named storms — five to nine of which will become hurricanes — in its Atlantic hurricane outlook for the upcoming 2023 season released Thursday.
This would be considered an average season in the Atlantic basin, however there's a little more uncertainty than usual heading into the coming months due to two competing factors which could swing the season one way or the other.
NOAA is forecasting a modest 40 per cent chance of a normal year, and a 30 per cent chance of both an above-normal and below-normal season.
The changing wind patterns caused by El Niño and La Niña weather events have a strong influence on hurricane activity in the Atlantic even though the events occur in the eastern Pacific ocean, thousands of miles away from any developing hurricanes.
Following a long La Niña event, there's good consensus that an El Niño is developing in the eastern Pacific. However large questions remain about how strong the event will be by the time we get into the key months of August, September and October.
When a cooler-water El Niño event is underway in the Pacific, stronger wind shear occurs over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic ocean. This wind shear can suppress the development and growth of tropical storms and hurricanes.
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