What does Assad’s fall mean for Russia Premium

Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad granted asylum in Moscow after rebel overthrow, highlighting Russia's waning influence in West Asia.

Story so far: Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was granted asylum by Moscow on Monday (December 9, 2024), mere hours after Syrian rebels overthrew his 24-year regime. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, told NBC News, that Mr. Assad and his family was transported very securely to Russia by its forces and refuted any reason to hand over the Syrian dictator for trial. A lightning rebel offensive which began on November 27 ended the 50-year Assad regime in Damascus, in just twelve days. 

Mr. Assad’s flight to Moscow was necessitated because the Syrian rebel opposition led by militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) successfully recaptured Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus, in the face of minimal resistance from the Syrian military. As per reports, both Iran and Russia, who have military presence in Syria refused to aid Mr. Assad at that time. While Russia is still embroiled in the Ukraine war, Iran is involved in a proxy war with Israel via militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. 

The fall of Mr. Assad has thrown into sharp focus Moscow’s diminished military due to its prolonged war with Kyiv. “Events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its closest allies for the sake of continued aggression against Ukraine,” stated Ukraine’s Foreign ministry. Moreover, Moscow had initially tried to explain Mr. Assad’s departure as an organised one claiming he had left the country after giving orders for a peaceful transfer of power. Within hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally cleared the Assad family’s plea for asylum. 

Here’s a look at Russian backing of Assad regime and what his fall means 

Russia and Syria established diplomatic relations in 1944 and Moscow has backed the country’s independence from French colonial in 1946. During the Cold War era, Russia expanded its presence in West Asia backing Syrian Baath party supporters’ coup in 1970 led by Hafez al-Assad, the ousted president’s father.

During Assad Sr.’s tenure, the Soviet Union opened its naval base in Tartus in 1971, provided aid to Syria during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war (Yom Kippur war), signed a 20-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. Russia is also one Syria’s biggest arms supplier. 

After the senior Assad’s death, the Russia-Syria relations were strengthened further under his son Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin. By 2011, pro-democracy protests broke across West Asia stirring anti-government public movement against the Assad regime. Throughout 2011-12, violent protests breakout across Syria as wide-spread defections from the Syrian military to the ‘Free Syrian Army’, a loose rebel coalition, took place, opposing Assad’s rule. Opposition forces and jihadists captured swathes of territories including Raqqa, Der Ezzour and parts of Aleppo. Assad’s forces were accused of using chemical weapons in East Ghouta, a Damascus suburb, during the civil war in 2013.