What are the challenges for the new Polish government? | Explained Premium

Poland's Oct. 15 election saw a resounding victory for the multi-party Opposition coalition, ending the ultra-conservative Law and Justice party's 8-year rule. The new government, led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, must now navigate a political landscape vitiated by PiS policies and restore EU ties. Tusk has already begun by unblocking billions of euros of Poland's EU funds, and is committed to upholding EU values.

The story so far: The people of Poland handed a resounding majority to a multi-party Opposition coalition in the parliament’s lower house (Sejm) on October 15, in a record 74.4% turnout. Voters also gave the combine a handsome majority in the upper house, or the Senate. The ruling ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party led coalition was defeated after its retrograde eight-year record in office.

The hallmark of PiS rule has been to deploy its electoral majority to redefine the Polish nation in its own radically right-wing and populist image. Early in its tenure, the government rolled out generous welfare benefits, especially targeted at children and young mothers, although their long-term sustainability had been questioned by many economists. In 2016, the government piloted a contentious legislation to impose a total ban on abortions, forcing thousands on to the streets in protest. The public outcry pushed the government to back down, but only momentarily. In 2020, the constitutional tribunal set aside provisions of a 1993 law that allowed abortions in case of foetal disabilities, triggering further protests. The tribunal tightened the existing law by providing exemptions to the termination of pregnancies only involving rape, incest and risk to the mother’s health. PiS has also attacked the LGBT community as an affront to the country’s traditional family values.

The government also legislated sweeping provisions to empower politicians to control lower courts, the constitutional tribunal and the body that appoints judges. A brazen move in 2018 saw one-third of Supreme Court judges being forcibly retired. By the time the move was rescinded under pressure from the European Court of Justice (ECJ), the body had been packed with PiS loyalists. In 2021, the ECJ slapped a fine of one million euros per day when the government defied an order to revoke measures designed to withdraw immunity of judges from prosecution deemed inconvenient. Despite repeatedly falling fowl of Europe’s top court, Poland’s constitutional tribunal ruled, in a case brought by the Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieki, that parts of the EU law were not compatible with the constitution. The verdict was at variance with the principle of the primacy of EU law over national legislation and the binding nature of ECJ rulings on member states. Brussels dubbed the ruling a breach of European values and has withheld Warsaw’s application for COVID-19 recovery money, worth billions of euros, and equally large regional development funds.

As the single largest party in the new parliament, PiS would be invited to form a government by President Andrzej Duda, but few expect it to muster a majority. The baton would then pass on to Donald Tusk, Poland’s former prime minister and co-founder of the centre-right Civic Platform, the principal constituent in the victorious opposition civic coalition. The others in this grouping are the Third Way alliance of centrist and agrarian parties and the leftist Lewika. All of these parties are united in their pro-EU stance. The new government is not expected to be sworn in before December.

Foremost, the government under Mr. Tusk has to brace itself to navigate a political landscape that has been seriously vitiated by the policies of the past eight years. PiS commands a not inconsiderable vote share of 35% in the lower house of the incoming parliament. Conversely, tackling issues on the EU stage appears less daunting for the new government. To begin with, Mr. Tusk is a familiar face in Brussels, where he had until 2019 ably headed the EU Council, the forum that gathers the heads of governments of the 27-member bloc. Within days of the October elections, the putative premier was in Brussels to unblock billions of euros of Poland’s EU development funds that were frozen consequent to Warsaw’s conflict over compliance with the EU’s rule of law procedures.

The writer is Director, Strategic Initiatives at AgnoShin Technologies.