Vladimir Putin has raised the stakes in the Ukraine war. Now what?

By claiming captured Ukrainian territory as Russian and vowing to use "full protection" to defend it, President Vladimir Putin has dramatically upped the stakes in the Ukraine War and set his country on a collision course with the West for which he appears to have left no off-ramp.

"This is a huge escalation," said Alissa de Carbonnel, a London-based analyst and long-time Russia watcher with Crisis Group.

"He's trying to draw new red lines now with this annexation and trying to extend the so-called 'nuclear umbrella,' and in one stroke change the whole map."

Russia's moves on annexation, and the rigged referendums that preceded them, have been widely denounced by Western nations as illegitimate and meaningless. 

By folding the Ukrainian territories into Russia, at least from the point of view of the Kremlin, its military is now justified in using nuclear weapons to defend them.   

"I want the Kyiv regime and their sponsors in the West to hear me, to heed me," said Putin.

Putin's veiled nuclear warnings and his move to incorporate the conquered lands into the Russian Federation follow a series of military and diplomatic embarrassments that have left the Russian leader in a precarious position. 

At a recent summit in Uzbekistan, India's Prime Minister rebuked Putin for continuing with the war. Putin was also forced to publicly acknowledge that China's leadership has concerns as well.

An even bigger factor affecting the Kremlin's strategy has been Russia's poor battlefield performance.   

Ukraine's military has scored a series of dramatic successes, allowing its forces to recapture thousands of square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv area and rout the disorganised Russian troops defending it.   

Even as Putin was speaking at the Kremlin, Ukrainian troops were close to encircling the Donbas city of Lyman, in the Donetsk region, and possibly cutting off or capturing thousands of Russian soldiers. 

The annexation, along with Putin's not-so-veiled nuclear threats, are an attempt to compel Ukraine to cut a deal with Russia and for the West to stop supplying Ukraine's military with effective weaponry.

"It's certainly an attempt to coerce, threaten and intimidate," said de Carbonnel.

Putin returned to the nuclear threat again in his Friday speech.