US intelligence agencies not expecting China to invade Taiwan in 2027
Al Jazeera
US spy agencies says Chinese leadership still prefers to pursue unification with Taiwan ‘without use of force’.
United States intelligence agencies say that China is pursuing its longstanding goal of taking control over Taiwan, but they do not expect Beijing to launch an invasion by next year, according to their latest threat assessment.
“The [intelligence community] assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” according to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, which was released on Wednesday.
The year 2027 has been considered an unofficial deadline in Washington for when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have capabilities in place to launch an invasion of Taiwan, but US intelligence said such a timeline does not mean Beijing will launch an attack.
“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said.
The PLA has been making “steady but uneven progress” and it has at times “increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan” with military drills and operations, but there are still too many risks for Chinese leadership, the report adds.
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