Upcoming federal byelections will put Singh and the NDP brand to the test

While an upcoming byelection in Montreal is being viewed as a test of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership, the same could be said for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh — whose party is trying to hang on to one seat while fighting to take another away from the Liberals.

The NDP is holding a caucus meeting in Montreal on Tuesday. New Democrats likely will use the opportunity to discuss plans for the upcoming parliamentary session in the wake of the party's move to pull out of its confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals last week.

The NDP pulled the plug on its pact with the Liberals just over a week ahead of two byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal.

The Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona is considered an NDP stronghold. The party has won 10 of the 11 general election votes in the riding since 1988.

Former NDP MP Françoise Boivin said that if the party can't hold Elmwood–Transcona, it might trigger questions about whether Singh waited too long to end the pact with the Liberals.

"It would be devastating, in my book. If they lose this [riding] it's going to be a hard, hard hit and very hard for Jagmeet to assert his leadership," Boivin told CBC News.

The Conservatives are making a strong push to take the riding away from the NDP. Part of their strategy has been to tie Singh to the fading popularity of the Trudeau Liberals.

Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds has erected signs around the riding featuring photos of Singh and Trudeau together and dismissing the NDP leader as "sellout Singh" — a reference to the NDP's previous arrangement with the federal Liberals.

The NDP lacks an incumbent candidate in the riding; Daniel Blaikie resigned his seat earlier this year to work with the provincial NDP government. Blaikie had held the seat since 2015 and his father Bill Blaikie was the MP for the riding from 1988 to 2008.

In fact, only two people not named Blaikie have held the seat over the past two-and-half decades: New Democrat Jim Maloway from 2008 to 2011 and Conservative Lawrence Toet from 2011 to 2015.

Andrew Thomson, a former federal NDP candidate who once served as Saskatchewan's finance minister, said the lack of a Blaikie on the ballot may turn the byelection into a test of Singh's leadership.

"It's more of an open seat, but it's also a seat that the NDP needs to prove that they can not only hold but can win," Thomson told CBC News.

"That is, I think, the test of leadership here, is that it's beyond Blaikie now. It is about the NDP brand and partly about Singh's leadership."

The Winnipeg byelection is being held on the same day as the byelection in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.