Ukraine's fate is now tied to a tumultuous place: the U.S. Congress
CBC
The fate of Ukraine's war effort is now attached to an increasingly unpredictable place: the United States Congress.
The U.S. is overwhelmingly the top donor to Ukraine's self-defence and there's new uncertainty about whether that funding can continue.
That's because the House of Representatives is in limbo as Republicans search for a new leader following their unprecedented ouster of a House Speaker.
Whether the next House Speaker is as pro-Ukraine as the ejected Kevin McCarthy is by no means certain, as Republican support softens.
There are still several paths to delivering new aid. They range from parliamentary procedural manoeuvring, to political risk-taking.
None of these options is guaranteed to succeed, and none will happen immediately, all of which spells a period of extended anxiety in Kyiv as current U.S. funding will dry up over the fall.
Acknowledging these emerging jitters, U.S. President Joe Biden called world leaders earlier this week and also said he'll be delivering a speech on this topic.
"It does worry me," Biden said Wednesday of the suspension in funding.
He said he'll talk soon about potential short-term solutions. In the long run, he's appealing to the majority in Congress, which he says supports more Ukraine funding.
Biden's right — about three-quarters of U.S. lawmakers consistently vote for more Ukraine funds, and would undoubtedly back the president's request for $24 billion in additional funding.
But it's less clear that a vote will even happen. This may depend on the next Republican leader, and on the mood in the Republican Party.
White House official John Kirby estimated current U.S. funding will last for about a couple of months and was more emphatic when asked whether Ukraine will be able to continue defending itself without American support.
"To be blunt … no," Kirby replied.
The U.S. has indeed supplied Ukraine with everything from medical bandages and goggles to tanks, missiles, drones, mine-clearing equipment, artillery and battlefield intelligence.
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