UCP maintaining voter support that won election, NDP competitive amid leadership race: poll

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research in April, leading into the first anniversary of the United Conservative Party's general election win last May. The poll offers insight into how Albertans feel about Danielle Smith's UCP government and the Opposition NDP. 

As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time. 

This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow.

Nearly one year after Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, new polling suggests Smith's party is mostly hanging on to the support that brought it into office.

The random polling of 1,200 Albertans was commissioned by CBC News and conducted by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research between May 1 and 15.

Given that the NDP does not currently have a permanent leader, the polling zeroed in on what the total available vote was for the UCP and the NDP. That's a figure that adds together the number of voters very likely or somewhat likely to consider voting for a party.

It determined that number at 48 per cent for the UCP and 45 per cent for the NDP.

In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the vote.

The results are good news for the UCP, said pollster Janet Brown.

"When you take out the people from my survey that didn't express an opinion, that aren't really sure, I would say that it looks like the UCP has maintained the support that they had from the past election," Brown said.

Since Albertans re-elected the UCP to a majority government, the party has undertaken an ambitious legislative agenda.

Various issues Smith largely set aside during her leadership campaign are back in the spotlight, including the possibility of introducing an Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force.

Other propositions have also made headlines, including the government's planned legislation on gender policies for children and youth, the oft-debated Sovereignty Act and, more recently, Bill 20, proposed legislation that would see the province wielding more power over municipalities.

The government has also taken the first steps in its plans to restructure Alberta Health Services and has sought to shake up Alberta's electricity market.