U.S. company CFOs saw a solid economic outlook, at least until war broke out, Fed survey shows

U.S. corporate finance chiefs’ outlook for the economy improved over the first months of the year, at least until the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with executives expecting to increase employment amid solid revenue growth, though with continued pressure as well to raise prices, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

Tariffs and trade policy remained the top concern among the 473 chief financial officers polled in a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of Atlanta and Richmond with the Duke University Fuqua School of Business.

But the share of CFOs citing those things as their biggest concern continued to ease to just over 20 per cent versus nearly 40 per cent in mid-2025, when the Trump administration was pursuing dramatic increases in import taxes, many of which have since been reduced or ruled illegal. Other top issues included labor quality and availability, cited by 17 per cent of respondents, and the outlook for sales, cited by 15 per cent of respondents.

The overall mood, however, was positive in a survey that was conducted largely before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran pushed the price of oil over US$100 a barrel and disrupted shipping and travel in the Middle East.

Up to that point, “business expectations for both demand and hiring in 2026 held up,” Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Richmond Fed, said in commentary released with the latest survey. “Most firms expected demand to increase in the next 12 months and reported continued hiring ... Very few firms expected declining demand or a need to lay off workers.”

The median of survey respondents saw their firms’ revenue rising five per cent this year, and anticipated boosting employment by 1.6 per cent. Prices were also expected to rise three per cent, with unit costs rising by the same amount.