Trump was warned of likely Iranian retaliation on Gulf allies: report

Trump claimed Iran's attacks on Gulf allies were unexpected, despite prior warnings of potential retaliation from U.S. intelligence.

 President Donald Trump was ​warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies despite his claims on Monday (March 16, 2026) that Tehran’s reaction ‌came as a surprise, said a U.S. official and two sources familiar with ​U.S. intelligence reports.

Pre-war intelligence assessments did not say that Iran’s response was “a guarantee, ⁠but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” said one source, who like the other two requested anonymity to discuss the issue.

Iran-Israel war LIVE - March 17, 2026

The president twice on Monday (March 16, 2026) said that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, ‌the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were a surprise, the first time at a Kennedy Center board meeting in the White House.

“They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after ‌all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.” Mr. Trump’s assertion ‌followed ⁠other administration claims that have not been backed by U.S. intelligence reporting, such ⁠as that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the U.S. homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and would then use it.

Those allegations and an imminent threat posed by ​Iran to the U.S. and its forces in ‌the region have been among varying reasons that Trump and some top aides have given to justify his decision to join Israel in launching their air war against Iran on February 28.