Trump’s trip to Beijing could be cancelled, says analyst

But a former US diplomat said Trump can manage both Iran and broader foreign policy goals. Read more at straitstimes.com.

HOUSTON – The massive military operation in Iran comes at a delicate moment for US-China relations, just ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing on March 31.

The White House has not provided updates on the high-stakes summit, but analysts say the Iran strikes would sharpen the great power rivalry.

Mr Han Lin, the China managing director of The Asia Group, said there is a “low-to-moderate” chance that the trip could be postponed or cancelled.

“In February, I gave it an 80 per cent chance (of it happening) after a senior team of the US Treasury came to China to meet their counterparts and discuss plans about the Trump visit,” said Mr Lin, who is based in Shanghai. “All the signalling was positive. Now, it seems considerably less so,” he said, adding there was talk that many in the White House preferred Mr Trump not to go.

“The strikes on Iran accelerate a dynamic already in motion,” he added. “Namely, the US is stretched thin, China is watching carefully, and both powers are increasingly aware that every regional crisis is also a proxy test of their global rivalry.”

The ground has shifted significantly after the Feb 20 US Supreme Court ruling struck down Mr Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. “Trump will still want headline-grabbing wins. But without the tariff stick, the leverage shifts,” said Mr Lin. This means Chinese President Xi Jinping is more likely to extend only “selective, symbolic concessions”.