Trump's Popularity Is Tumbling — But Dems Are Still Worried About Two Big Problems

Freshly gerrymandered maps and a GOP cash advantage could hinder a new blue wave.

There were two major ingredients to the 2018 blue wave. The first was the staggering unpopularity of then-President Donald Trump. The second was Democrats’ tactical advantages, starting with a consistent fundraising edge and shifting political terrain they could capitalize on.

In Trump’s second term, Democrats are eager to replicate a midterm that swept them to power in the House and set the stage for the complete takeover of the White House and Congress two years later. But recent weeks have made it clear they may only have one of the ingredients necessary for the recipe.

Even as Trump’s poll numbers continue to slip and his coalition begins to crumble amid unpopular legislation and even less popular efforts to block the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, Republicans are maintaining an advantage in high-dollar fundraising that has some Democratic operatives worried. And despite tough talk from Democratic leaders, the party is finding it may have few options to immediately counter a hyperpartisan push by the GOP to gerrymander red states.

“Eight years ago, we had the war chest. This time, we can’t count on that,” said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist deeply involved in the battle for the House. “Instead, we’ll have receipts for the wreckage they’ve left behind.”

It’s still early in the cycle. Trump has plenty of time to improve his political standing, even if doing so would be improbable. Democrats have plenty of time to convince reluctant donors to step up. But right now, who wins control of the House in 2026 may come down to these cross-cutting dynamics.