Trump's pivot on Ukraine shows he's unwilling to put maximum pressure on Putin

As Donald Trump sat in the Oval Office on Monday and announced that NATO would be buying U.S. weapons and shipping them to Kyiv, it was a major pivot for the U.S. president and for an administration that just two weeks ago halted the supply of some military hardware, including air defence missiles which were already en route to Ukraine. 

But while it was a sign that Trump has grown frustrated by Vladimir Putin's recalcitrance, the announcement was also a signal that Trump is unwilling to go all-in to pressure Russia's president. Instead of immediately hitting Moscow's trading partners with secondary sanctions, he offered the Kremlin a 50-day deadline to agree to a ceasefire.

Before his televised appearance alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump teased the announcement as "major."

Afterwards, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed gratitude, while Russian investors appeared relieved, as the stock market rose.  

Trump's announcement included broad statements, and scant details. He said that billions of dollars in weaponry would be sent, including Patriot missile defence systems, but there was no talk publicly about sending longer range cruise missiles, like Lockheed Martin's JASSMs, which have a range of about 370 kilometres. 

He said that if the Kremlin doesn't agree to a deal within 50 days, he would roll out those secondary sanctions against Russia's trading partners, and impose a 100 per cent tariff on all Russian goods that enter the U.S.

"Militarily it looks like [this deal] is useful, but without the detail, it's hard to know if it radically changes anything," said Matthew Saville, director of military sciences at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. 

"On sanctions, on tariffs, [Trump] is talking about another 50 days. Putin will use at least 49 of those days to continue to keep attacking Ukraine."

Russia has escalated its air attacks on Ukrainian cities, particularly Kyiv, where metro stations and shelters, which have been relatively empty throughout much of the war, are now crowded nightly during Russian barrages. 

The Patriot system is designed to take down cruise and ballistic missiles, but with each interceptor missile costing roughly $4 million US, Saville says it is "wildly uneconomical" to use them to shoot down drones that cost tens of thousands of dollars. 

Instead, when Moscow launches hundreds of Shahed and Geran drones, Kyiv uses small arms and other domestically produced drones to try to bring them down. 

Saville says Ukraine's interception rate is normally 85 per cent. But with so many being launched nightly, dozens of drones have been able to get through.

On the streets of Kyiv Monday afternoon, some were cautiously optimistic after hearing the announcement, but many were skeptical of Trump who has given Putin deadlines before.

"I really hope that these 50 days… will finally be real pressure on Russia.," said Denys Podilchuk, 39, in an interview with Reuters.