Trump's MAGA base is in crisis over the Epstein files. Could it cost Republicans the midterms?

As some Donald Trump supporters express anger with the U.S. president over his administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, he says he "no longer" wants their support — and he might not get it during the 2026 midterms.

Trump and members of his administration have long promised to release any documents related to Epstein, a convicted child sex offender and former financier who died in jail in 2019. The files allegedly include a "client list," commonly believed by conspiracy theorists to be a record of politicians and celebrities associated with Epstein's alleged sex-trafficking operation.

But his administration's backtracking on the issue has ignited a new wave of distrust. Attorney General Pam Bondi has sidestepped questions after teasing that an Epstein list was on her desk; the Justice Department has said there's no list; and Trump himself has downplayed the issue.

That's seen by some of his supporters as a betrayal, because Trump positioned himself "as somebody who truly was going to fight for them and basically unlock what they consider to be a conspiracy that the government has propagated over the past many years," said Dave Levinthal, an investigative journalist based in Washington, D.C.

That includes an unproven theory that Trump himself is on the client list, given his association with Epstein in the 1990s and early 2000s.

"Jeffrey Epstein is not something that is top of mind for most people in the United States. But it is top of mind for a narrow slice of the electorate and certainly a very vocal part of Donald Trump's base," Levinthal said. "That is very concerning for Donald Trump because it can hurt him politically."

Trump has cultivated a base that includes people prone to conspiracy theories and mistrust of institutions, said Joseph Uscinski, co-author of American Conspiracy Theories and a political scientist at the University of Miami.

That's partly because the president has pushed so many conspiracies himself, from propagating "birther" lies about former U.S. president Barack Obama to his claim that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.

"It's only natural that the folks in this coalition are going to buy into Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy theories, whether it's that he was murdered or that there's some secret list full of Hollywood celebrities and government officials who have been engaged in some sort of blackmail scheme or sex trafficking," Uscinski said.

"Maybe such a list exists, but the problem is the beliefs have been running far ahead of the available evidence. And that's the issue here — that you have a lot of people in that coalition predisposed to the conspiratorial explanation before the evidence."

Trump's own strategy has been to downplay the issue and fuel more conspiracy theories around the purported files. Most recently, he suggested they're a hoax created by his political foes, including former presidents Obama, Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, former FBI director James Comey and former CIA director John Brennan.

"Normally, conspiracy theories are about accusing the people in power of conspiring. Now Trump and his coalition are the ones in power. So it's awkward," Uscinski said. "Who do they have to blame? It's really only themselves."

A number of high-profile Trump supporters and associates have warned that any perceived lack of transparency from his administration would have negative consequences.

Far-right commentator and 9/11 conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer has been especially vocal, calling on Bondi to resign her attorney general's post, while comedian Dave Smith accused Trump of "actively" covering up "a giant child rapist ring."