Trump admin could be forced to refund $200B in tariffs after SCOTUS ruling: JPMorgan
NY Post
JP Morgan predicted fresh economic turbulence from Friday’s Supreme Court ruling nixing President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, warning Uncle Sam could be forced to refund as much as $200 billion to US businesses.
One of the bank’s top researchers on economic policy, Michael Feroli, warned the decision could still spark heightened trade uncertainty and stunt business spending even as Trump administration officials vowed to revive the duties using other laws.
“The Court’s ruling remanded this issue (of refunds) to the lower courts, so we won’t know the full amount or timing of any … rebates,” Feroli wrote.
“While the official data from [US Customs and Border Protection] is a bit stale, we estimate the amount at stake to be around $150-200 billion,” he added in the note to clients.
Those estimates are equivalent to just over 16-22% of America’s annual defense budget for 2026, which stands at $901 billion.
“If the rebates were passed on to consumers, the boost to activity would be significant. In the more likely event that businesses keep the cash, the boost to activity should be smaller.”
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