Trudeau's tumultuous relationship with the Canadian oilpatch

It's a scene that would be hard to imagine if there wasn't video evidence. 

In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took to the stage at the CERAweek energy conference in Houston. Speaking to a packed room of 1,200 energy executives and leaders, he meditated on the importance of the Canadian oil and gas sector — and was met with multiple standing ovations. 

"No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and just leave them there," said Trudeau onstage. "The resource will be developed. Our job is to ensure that this is done responsibly, safely and sustainably."

At the time, Trudeau said environmental protection and resource development went hand-in-hand, and described progress on these dual priorities as being worked out "in co-operation with our provinces."

Cut to 2025, and suffice to say the oilpatch is much less happy with the now-outgoing PM. And as for the federal government co-operating with the provinces? Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, for one, would likely beg to differ.

So how did things go so sour?

Even during the early days of his government, Trudeau faced criticism in the oilpatch from those who blamed him for the cancellation of the Northern Gateway project. His public suggestion in 2017 that the oilsands should be "phased out" also sparked outrage in Alberta.  

Later, Trudeau did purchase the Trans-Mountain Pipeline — which has boosted Canadian oil exports significantly — but his government also introduced a range of policies that have been deeply unpopular in the oilpatch.

A prime example is the oil and gas emissions cap, which many in the oilpatch see as a de facto cap on production. If Canada isn't able to meet global demand for oil and gas, the thinking goes, it doesn't mean demand will slow — it will simply mean other countries will ramp up production instead, and there's no guarantee those countries will have better environmental or human rights records. 

"We've been the only country in the world that has, for a decade, been shooting itself in the foot so that a small number of politicians can pat themselves on the back," said Martha Hall Findlay, the former head of climate at oil company Suncor and a former Liberal MP, who is now director of the University of Calgary school of public policy.

Beyond the oil and gas emissions cap, there's also the Clean Fuel Regulation, Clean Electricity Regulations, Bill C-69 and Bill C-59. These are policies industry insiders see as complicated, burdensome and unfairly targeting their industry more so than any other.

Richard Masson, also with the University of Calgary public policy school, says the level of bickering and uncertainty around policy have ultimately undermined the government's ability to hit its climate goals.

A prime example, he says, is the massive carbon capture and storage (CCS) project proposed by the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of oilsands companies. CCS involves capturing and storing carbon dioxide below ground, though some environmentalists are skeptical about the safety and viability.

"There's been more than two years of arguing about the fiscal terms, the backstopping for uncertainty, you know, those kinds of things," said Masson. "And so this big investment that would help to decarbonize oil sands production has yet to take shape."