Toronto's facing a 'turning point' election and voter turnout will be key, say experts

With just a day to go before Torontonians heads to the polls, John Beebe is watching the city's mayoral byelection closely.

The founder of the Democratic Engagement Exchange, whose mission is to foster democratic participation, said last fall's municipal vote was a wake-up call. With a record low 29 per cent voter turnout, his organization has been hard at work during this campaign doing outreach and providing free tools, resources and training to community groups. 

As for the reasons for the low turnout, Beebe said the impact of the pandemic, the strength of then-incumbent John Tory and the lack of a single predominant issue all were likely factors.

"In the last municipal election in Toronto, we clearly didn't have a competitive election," he said of Tory's sweeping re-election. "There wasn't a galvanizing issue and that was certainly a factor."

To try to address that, this time around, his group has been working with community organizations to engage with voters across the city, he said. 

But with 102 candidates and a crowded field of top-polling challengers releasing reams of policy, this campaign has potential to engage voters, he said.

"Overall, I think we've had, in many ways, a great campaign," Beebe said. "We have a lot of serious candidates, plenty of debates. And we are seeing in the field (higher) levels of engagement."

Beebe said Toronto's advance polling numbers are also an encouraging sign — nearly 130,000 people came out to cast a ballot during the six days of early voting. That's a 12 per cent increase over last fall's advance vote, which had two more days of polling.

"I was actually surprised as many people voted because it's such a crowded field, people are still making up their minds," he said. "That indicates that people have made up their minds, that they were confident enough to know that that wasn't going to change."

But Beebe is quick to caution that while those figures are good, nothing guarantees Torontonians will show up in large numbers on election day to elect a new mayor. He continues to urge people to get out and vote.

"At the end of the day, voting is the lifeblood of democracy," he said. "And if people don't engage it, democracy does start to erode and wither away." 

Toronto Metropolitan University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki said this vote will shape the future of the city. He's hopeful that because of that, voter participation will jump.

"This is a turning point election, this is a very competitive election, there is a whole spectrum of candidates offering a variety of options and choices," he said. "And this is the time to pay attention."

With a billion-dollar budget gap, a housing affordability crisis and transit and transportation challenges across Toronto, the person leading the city will make pivotal choices, he said.