This Valentine's Day, people are betting through prediction markets, wagering money on love
CBSN
Can love beat the odds? Prediction markets are taking bets this Valentine's Day that celebrity relationships can thrive — or break apart. By wagering money, bettors are setting the odds on the amorous relationships of high-profile figures, from Zendaya to Katy Perry. Edited by Cara Tabachnick In:
Can love beat the odds? Prediction markets are taking bets this Valentine's Day that celebrity relationships can thrive — or break apart. By wagering money, bettors are setting the odds on the amorous relationships of high-profile figures, from Zendaya to Katy Perry.
For example, on Polymarket, an online prediction market, registered users can take a financial position on whether or not American pop star Katy Perry and former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced their relationship in December 2025, will be engaged by the end of 2026. As of early February, the probability of the pair committing to wed by then was 27%. To date, more than $22,800 has been wagered on the couple's fate.
Polymarket users are also betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on aspects of pop-star Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's engagement, including whether or not they'll be married before June 30, or if the bride will become pregnant before she weds (unlikely, according to bettors).
A similar bet is hosted on a prediction market called Kalshi, where the site puts the probability of Swift and Kelce marrying before Jan. 1, 2027, at 70%, based on customers' bets.
"In the spirit of Valentine's Day, who doesn't want to see two people find each other?" Melinda Roth, a professor at the Washington and Lee University School of Law, who researches prediction markets, told CBS News.
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