These Hamilton ridings are ones to watch, political experts say in final days of campaign

With many Hamilton-area federal ridings held by Liberal members of Parliament going into this election, the bump the party has seen in the polls this month means the local electoral map may not change drastically, say local political scientists.

On election day this Monday, political experts say they'll be watching for the results especially in two local ridings held by other parties to see just how much pull the Liberal message has in this election.

Stefan Dolgert, an associate professor of political science at Brock University, sees the rise of Liberal support and the shrinking of support for the New Democratic Party as two sides of the same coin.

Dolgert, who lives in Hamilton, notes Conservative support nationally is still relatively strong, at about 38 per cent, which in normal times would be enough to form government. Those numbers are according to both the CBC poll tracker and the 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data.

But these days, existential fears related to tense relations with the United States have reduced NDP voters' feelings of "basic security" and have likely driven many to the more middle-of-the-road Liberals, he says.

That makes Liberal victories more likely in the Hamilton ridings the party already holds — Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek — but may also have candidates such as Hamilton-Centre NDP MP Matthew Green looking over his shoulder, Dolgert says.

"I've been surprised to see how much support there is for the Liberal candidate [in Hamilton Centre]," said Dolgert, noting Green has been in the MP job since 2019 and was a city councillor before that. 

"I would still be surprised if [the NDP loses] Hamilton Centre but it does seem possible" in a way that was unfathomable even a few months ago, he told CBC Hamilton on Thursday.

Chris Erl, a politics researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University, says the Liberal support in Hamilton Centre is notable given that the party is running a candidate who lives in Mississauga and works in Toronto, engineer Aslam Rana. 

"For the first time in decades, they are competitive in Hamilton Centre," says Erl, who also lives in Hamilton. "A lot of people who [would consider voting Liberal] are struggling with voting for someone who doesn't have a strong connection to the community."

He says many expected the Liberals to run a star local candidate, noting he heard residents musing about whether it might be former mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis or recent provincial Liberal candidate Deirdre Pike.

"This time, the Liberals might be kicking themselves over their choice," he said.

The other local riding without a Liberal incumbent is Flamborough-Glanbrook, currently held by Conservative Dan Muys, who is running again.

The riding has gone Conservative since it was created in 2015, but if there were an election where the Liberals could be a factor there, it's this one, says Erl.