The world order of the last few decades may be over — what emerges could include China
CBC
As U.S. President Donald Trump antagonizes pretty much the entire globe with tariffs, and as the trade war between the two largest economies exponentially escalates, there are questions around whether the world order has irrevocably collapsed, and which countries could emerge as new leaders.
"The world order of the last 80 years as we know it is dead," said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner with Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions.
As countries everywhere grapple with their responses to Trump's sweeping tariffs — now on pause at the baseline 10 per cent for 90 days except for China — some analysts say the world may have no choice but to look toward Asia to bolster trade and co-operation, especially as the U.S. regime appears to be increasingly unpredictable.
On April 2, Trump slapped on a blanket 10 per cent tariff rate on nearly every country, with many getting hit harder. China was one of them, at 34 per cent.
That move set off a full-on tit-for-tat with Beijing that has rapidly ramped up.
And despite many countries attempting to negotiate with Trump, there aren't any indications there's an end in sight, at least to the unpredictability.
In fact, quite the opposite. There's the latest pause. Then there's the escalation with China, currently facing 125 per cent tariffs, while a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson vowed the country will "fight to the end" if the U.S. doesn't back down. On Wednesday, China's tariff rate for U.S. imports was 84 per cent. It also placed export restrictions on rare earth elements, critical to electric vehicles, weapons and computer chips.
Johnson, an American based in Shanghai, says Trump's recent actions will only "cement Chinese influence in supply chains in Asia and Africa."
"Nobody, at least in this region, feels the U.S. has shared values with them any longer," he said.
"The whole world is shifting here. And if you're not on that train, you're going to get screwed and your people are going to get screwed, and that's not good."
That's especially as the exhaustive list of countries hit with tariffs includes those the U.S. was trying to court, like Vietnam, strategically placed to bridge supply chains between the U.S. and China.
Conversely, China, for years, has been positioning itself as a country with which others can do business and trade, making inroads into several continents, most notably with its massive Belt and Road Initiative, a series of global infrastructure projects designed to bolster its economic and political footprint. In many ways, the reshaping of the world order arguably began long before Trump's second term.
China has become Africa's largest trading partner in the last 20 years. Since 2009, it has also been the largest trading partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.
"[China is] the only country with the money, people and technology that can assist developing nations," Johnson said, pointing out the U.S. has pivoted to demanding investment in its own country, like in autos, as opposed to expanding its overseas markets.
