The political flux in Pakistan

As the economic and social conditions following the floods remain tense in Pakistan, the political landscape is not far behind. The effects of political engineering by the deep state to certain ends for the 2018 election can still be felt in the country especially in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan

With the dissolution of Punjab and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provincial assemblies, Pakistan’s politics has entered tumultuous territory. Former Prime Minister and founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan believes that now the PTI has a better chance to return with more seats. On the contrary, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) and the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) have been trying to avoid holding elections immediately. They want more time to stabilise the economy and improve social conditions before asking the people to vote. However, Mr. Khan senses a public mood against the Establishment and wants to capitalise on it. The PDM would want to strengthen its case with the Establishment firmly, before making the next step. The economic situation and the social conditions following the floods remain tense in Pakistan. All of the above, along with the lack of political consensus leaves national politics in a flux. At the same time, in the provincial level, there is an effort to revamp regional political parties in Balochistan and Sindh.

For the PML-N, winning Punjab is important to come back to Islamabad; preventing the Sharifs from doing so is the primary task for the PTI. Mr. Khan is now batting without the support of the Establishment; for him, the latter is no more a neutral umpire. He is pursuing confrontational politics; perhaps in the hopes of making Punjab volatile. The province is the most populous and politically powerful in the country. The party that controls Punjab will control Pakistan. The PML-N leads Parliament but has failed to capture the Punjab provincial assembly.

Of the 342 seats in the National Assembly, 272 are directly elected, and 70 are reserved for women and minorities. Put together (the open and reserved seats), Punjab alone has 173 seats, followed by Sindh (75), KP (55), and Balochistan (20). All that a party needs to have a majority in Parliament is 172 seats; in paper, if a party wins all the seats from Punjab for the National Assembly, and does not have a single seat from the other three provinces, it may still be able to form the government in Islamabad.

Therefore, the Punjab province holds the key for both PTI and PML-N. For the PTI, the 2018 election in Punjab was a miracle. The Establishment’s backing was considered as a primary reason for the win. Secondly, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), then a new Brelvi religious party, floated just before the elections, ate into the PML-N share in Punjab. Though the TLP could not win a single seat for the National Assembly, it spoiled the chances for PML-N in many constituencies, thereby providing space to the PTI. The PML-N has to win the hearts and minds of the people of the Punjab province first, but the current economic situation does not provide adequate space to do so. This is why Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wants more time to hold elections.

In terms of internal party divide, both the PML-N and PTI have problems. For the PML-N, the two star campaigners — Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz are not in the country. It is also imperative to prove that all is well within the Sharif family. There are rumours about a divide between the Sharif brothers, and also between their siblings — Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shabaz. For the PTI, a section starting from Jahangir Tareen has left the party. There is an effort to form a third front with them; the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) also seems to be winning their support, so that it can have its presence in south Punjab.

In all of this, where does the TLP stand? What will be its political calculation? In the past, it has not been shy to use violence to make its presence felt in Punjab.

Sindh politics, outside Karachi, seems to be with the PPP. Zardari has succeeded in keeping the party together and therefore, rural Sindh remains with the PPP. Karachi is the primary puzzle in Sindh. The city of lights has around 20 seats for the National Assembly, and 40 plus seats for the Sindh provincial assembly. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) used to have the larger share of the above, but the 2018 election witnessed PTI taking over the lion’s share in Karachi. The Pashtun population, and a section of the middle class is believed to have shifted to the PTI in Karachi.