The key to understanding Putin? He knows he will outlast Western leaders

Many believe that history is largely determined by the personal relationships between world leaders. Vladimir Putin's 25-year interaction with foreign leaders provides a fascinating case study of that theory.

The Russian president recently invited Narendra Modi to a private dinner at his home, and the Indian prime minister proclaimed to be very touched by the gesture. China's Xi Jinping has called Putin his best friend. At the 2024 BRICS summit, Putin said friendships such as these provide the basis for a "new world order." 

In the past, more adversarial leaders got a different treatment. 

There was evidence Putin played psychological games with German chancellor Angela Merkel, for example. In a 2007 meeting in Sochi in which they discussed energy supplies to Europe, the Russian president brought in his large Labrador. Putin knew that Merkel was terrified of dogs — the result of a dog attack years before — and it unsettled her during their talk. 

In Putin's Journey, a new two-hour CBC documentary marking his quarter-century in power, former Canadian foreign minister Peter MacKay said he was shocked by Putin's behaviour with Merkel. 

"It speaks to a dark nature, a character flaw in that man that crosses all lines in terms of diplomacy and just human nature," MacKay said.

Soviet-born Australian journalist Zoya Sheftalovich, who writes for Politico Europe, told CBC that Putin "is well-briefed, he knows what people's buttons are and he pushes them." 

Konstantin Eggert, a Lithuania-based journalist who works for the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle, said "he evidently wants to dominate all the time. He wants to prove that he's the toughest guy in the room. He always has to have someone to humiliate."

Putin's treatment of foreign leaders seems to be informed by the knowledge that he will outlast them. He is playing a long game to achieve his desired results. And he is likely relishing Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency, especially since Trump has said so many negative things about Ukraine and NATO.

Luke Harding, the former Moscow bureau chief for the Guardian and author of Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia's Bloody War and Ukraine's Fight for Survival, says Putin "thinks that Western leaders are gullible and short-lived."

"They're sort of colourful butterflies that flutter around for a bit and then get wiped out when winter comes in. Whereas Putin, who we know is close to outlasting Stalin, doesn't have to worry about pesky things like elections, and he knows what he'll be doing in two years' time, four years' time."

Shortly after Putin became president in 2000, George W. Bush was elected president of the United States. He came to meet Putin at a summit in Slovenia, where he shared his instant judgment of his Russian counterpart, famously saying, "I looked the man in the eye … I was able to get a sense of his soul."

"I think George W. Bush regrets having said that now, because it's not clear exactly where Putin's soul is," John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and national security adviser who met Putin numerous times, told CBC. 

"But [the comment] was indicative of the optimism that we felt that the Cold War was over, that we could find a way to bridge the differences and work together against what we saw as common threats," Bolton said. "I think in retrospect we can see that we badly misjudged Putin."