The economic war over Ukraine enters a new phase

Russia opened a new front in its war on Ukraine Wednesday over energy exports — an offensive directed at two other frontline states in eastern Europe that have been backing Kyiv's efforts to defend itself.

While anticipated, the decision by Gazprom to suspend natural gas shipments to Poland and Bulgaria tore away the last vestiges of doubt among European leaders about Moscow's willingness to separate its business interests from its territorial (some would say imperial) ambitions.

Poland and Bulgaria, and the president of the European Commission, vowed not to give in to "blackmail" and to pick up the pace of their efforts to obtain energy independence from Moscow.

Since Russia's full-on invasion of Ukraine started on Feb. 24, the world has witnessed a brutal conventional war leaving corpses and destruction in its wake, coupled with cyberattacks in various parts of the globe (including Canada).

It has responded with an unprecedented economic war against Russia, deploying sanctions to — according to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — generate the same effect on war industries that bombs and missiles did a generation ago.

While experts disagree on the effectiveness of sanctions, Wednesday's decision by Gazprom is an extension of that economic war.

Energy has been used as a geopolitical weapon in the past. Just look at the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s and the decision by the United States before the Second World War to cut off petroleum shipments to Japan — an attempt to starve that country's war machine as it engaged in a brutal war of conquest in China.

What's new, experts say, is how turning off the gas taps now fits with Moscow's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.

"I think that if someone had any illusions about Russian activities, gas or oil related activities in the European Union, [they] lost totally all these illusions," said Zuzanna Nowak of the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

"Weaponization, I would say it's a proper word and this word is somehow unifying the European countries."

Energy security in Europe took up a lot of the discussion in early March when Trudeau met with European leaders who implored Canada to help them find energy alternatives to Russia.

Gazprom's move will mean higher energy prices in both Poland and Bulgaria.

European energy prices rose about 24 per cent on overnight exchanges after Gazprom's statement, but dropped later in the day.

In a news release, the company blamed its decision on the refusal by Poland and Bulgaria to pay their bills in rubles — something Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded at the end of last month.