Syrians have big plans for life after Assad. But their neighbours might have other ideas

Syrians seeking to chart their own political course, free from outside interference, following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad may be thwarted by the geopolitical ambitions of their neighbours, who already have a foothold in the country, experts say.

"We all want this to be a moment of liberation and self-determination," for the Syrians, said Mostafa Minawi, an associate professor of history at Cornell University. 

But, with all the external players already involved in Syria, "I don't know how that would happen." he said.

"They are not planning on going anywhere."

Those players include Turkey, which has an ongoing interest in Syria because of its Kurdish minority; Iran, which, along with Russia, had supported the Assad regime; and Israel, which has occupied Syria's Golan Heights and expressed concerns over Islamist rebels.

Observers expect Turkey to play a dominant role in Syria's future, having established a significant military foothold in a northern strip of the country, controlling territories such as the city of Afrin and parts of the countryside outside Aleppo.

These areas serve as buffers against Kurdish groups and provide leverage over Syria's political landscape, analysts say.

"While Turkey may advocate for a decentralized or restructured Syria, it is unlikely to completely withdraw its influence, as its strategic interests remain deeply tied to Syria's future," Sajjan M. Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London, said in an email to CBC News.

Turkey's main concern are Syria's Kurdish forces, which it considers to be an extension of the Turkey-based separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (KWP), which seeks Kurdish self-rule. The Turkish government has labelled the KWP a terrorist group and doesn't believe Kurdish forces in Syria should have any presence.

The U.S. partnered with those Kurdish forces to rout the Islamic State group. But this alliance has been a source of tension between Washington and Ankara, even though both are NATO allies.

Turkey is "very much on the ground," Minawi said. "They're not going anywhere because there are Kurdish groups along the northern border of Syria that they will not allow to develop their own autonomous region because this threatens Turkey's own autonomy."

Ankara has the strongest channels of communication, and history of working, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel alliance that now controls much of Syria, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime's demise, Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute's Turkish Program, wrote in Foreign Affairs.

"Turkey will certainly have a role to play. Its support for the groups in charge, the long border it shares with Syria, and its military presence in the country give it significant influence," he wrote.

The defeat of Assad, who was backed by the Iranian government, is a significant blow to Tehran, which has already suffered strategic losses after Israel pounded its allies Hamas and Hezbollah, in Gaza and Lebanon respectively.