Sudan is at risk of civil war. What's behind the violence?
CBC
Fighting has erupted in Sudan's capital Khartoum and at other sites across the country as powerful rival military factions battle for control, increasing the risk of a nationwide civil war.
Tension had been building for months between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which together toppled a civilian government in an October 2021 coup.
The friction was brought to a head by an internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civilian parties. A final deal was due to be signed earlier in April, on the fourth anniversary of the overthrow of long-ruling autocrat Omar al-Bashir in a popular uprising.
Both the army and the RSF were required to cede power under the plan and two issues proved particularly contentious: one was the timetable for the RSF to be integrated into the regular armed forces, the second was when the army would be formally placed under civilian oversight.
When fighting broke out on April 15, both sides blamed the other for provoking the violence. The army accused the RSF of illegal mobilization in preceding days and the RSF, as it moved on key strategic sites in Khartoum, said the army had tried to seize full power in a plot with Bashir loyalists.
The protagonists in the power struggle are Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the army and leader of Sudan's ruling council since 2019, and his deputy on the council, RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti.
As the plan for a new transition developed, Hemedti aligned himself more closely with civilian parties from a coalition, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), that shared power with the military between Bashir's overthrow and the 2021 coup.
Diplomats and analysts said this was part of a strategy by Hemedti to transform himself into a statesman. Both the FFC and Hemedti, who grew wealthy through gold mining and other ventures, stressed the need to sideline Islamist-leaning Bashir loyalists and veterans who had regained a foothold following the coup and have deep roots in the army.
Along with some pro-army rebel factions that benefited from a 2020 peace deal, the Bashir loyalists opposed the deal for a new transition.
The popular uprising had raised hopes that Sudan and its population of 46 million people could emerge from decades of autocracy, internal conflict and economic isolation under Bashir.
Conflict could not only destroy those hopes but destabilize a volatile region bordering the Sahel, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
It could also play into competition for influence in the region between Russia and the United States, and between regional powers who have courted different actors in Sudan.
Western powers including the United States had swung behind a transition toward democratic elections following Bashir's overthrow. They suspended financial support following the coup, then backed the plan for a new transition and a civilian government.
Energy-rich powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also sought to shape events in Sudan, seeing the transition away from Bashir's rule as a way to roll back Islamist influence and bolster stability in the region.