Steve Kornacki's guide to the NCAA Tournament: Why Kansas could be in trouble, plus other upset picks

The NCAA Tournament is back, and so is Steve Kornacki's breakdown of the biggest upsets, best teams and game predictions for March Madness.

The madness is back … or is it? The 2026 NCAA Tournament that will tip off on Thursday comes at a moment of transition — and, some say, crisis — for the sport.

I don’t want to sound pessimistic, but it does suddenly seem like an open question now whether the type of tournament that for decades has seduced so many fans like me still exists. My hope is that the next few weeks provide a jolt of reassurance that it still does.

Jaw-dropping upsets made the NCAA Tournament what it is. They made it feel magical and contributed mightily to its enduring appeal. And just a few years ago, those Cinderella stories were being written with more regularity than ever as No. 15 seeds made it all the way to the Elite 8 in 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s) and to the Sweet 16 in 2023 (Princeton). That 2023 tournament also included the second-ever takedown of a No. 1 seed by a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue) and a Final Four trip by No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.

But just like that, the parade of underdogs has come to a halt. In each of the last two tournaments, only one double-digit seed has made it past the first weekend — and both of them were from power conferences. Last year’s Elite 8 and Final Four matchups were chalk-fests. It’s hard not to conclude that the dramatic changes to the sport that have come through NIL and the transfer portal have benefited the bluebloods, but have they fundamentally changed the tournament itself? That possibility hangs over this year’s edition. If the top seeds and power conferences crush the mid-majors once more, the pattern will be all the more apparent. We’re about to find out if there is still any magic left in March.

I’ve got to believe it can still happen, so I have my eye on three potential first-round upsets. And I mean real upsets — not underachieving power conference teams with double-digit seeds.