Slowing U.S. population growth could reduce GDP by $100 billion in 2026, analysis finds

Slowing population growth could soon weigh on the U.S. economy, trimming an estimated $104 billion from the country's gross domestic product compared with what it would have been if population growth had held at its previous pace, according to a new analysis from economic forecasting company Implan.  Edited by Alain Sherter In:

Slowing population growth could soon weigh on the U.S. economy, trimming an estimated $104 billion from the country's gross domestic product compared with what it would have been if population growth had held at its previous pace, according to a new analysis from economic forecasting company Implan. 

While U.S. population growth has been slowing for decades due to low birth rates, immigration sharply dropped during the first year of the Trump administration, leading to the lowest population growth since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. Census data found last year. 

In 2025, the number of new U.S. residents dropped to 1.8 million, down from 3.2 million in the prior year, leaving a "growth gap" of 1.4 million people, Implan said in its analysis. Those missing workers and consumers would have contributed an additional $86 billion in household spending and supported 741,500 jobs, Implan found. 

While the analysis examines the impact of slowing growth in 2026, the issue could have long-term ramifications on everything from the strength of the Social Security system to job opportunities for younger workers. 

"Population growth isn't just a demographic statistic — it's a driver of economic activity," Nadège Ngomsi, an economist at Implan, told CBS News. "When growth decides to slow sharply, spending slows, job creation slows, and these effects ripple through the local economies."