‘Sleeping with an elephant:’ What will a Republican or Democrat win mean for Canada?

While Kamala Harris and Donald Trump approach trade differently, both are selling protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canada.

Pierre Trudeau famously described living next to the United States as “sleeping with an elephant,” a sentiment his son is intimately aware of amid this year’s tumultuous and polarized American election.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has likely reflected on his father’s words about Canada’s proximity to the U.S.: “one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”

The U.S. is Canada’s closest neighbour and largest trading partner and who wins the White House in November will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.

While Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump approach trade differently, both are selling protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canada.

“We’ve done this before,” Trudeau said recently when asked about both presidential candidates saying they’d push the review of the crucial trade pact.

“We can do it again if we need to.”

Harris has been campaigning on her vote against the trilateral agreement and has made comments in support of the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.

Meanwhile, Trump’s professed love of tariffs is the centrepiece of his agenda. He previously proposed a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — pushing it upwards of 50 per cent in recent interviews.