Science table says Ontario’s 4th wave has ‘flattened,’ releases ‘wide range’ of case projections

Ontario's COVID-19 Science Advisory Table says the fourth wave in the province has 'flattened' and has released what it described as a 'wide range' of case projections.

Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table says the fourth wave in the province has “flattened” and has released what it described as a “wide range” of case projections into the fall.

In the modelling released Tuesday, the group said new cases, hospitalizations and intensive care unit occupancy overall are not increasing. It attributed the flattening of the fourth wave to continued public health measures and vaccinations.

The science table did say, however, that cases among children are increasing.

“There is a wide range for case projections, reflecting the fragile situation and high degree of instability as colder weather approaches with more time indoors,” a document released by the group read.

“Continued control over case growth requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continued public health measures, and a flattening of growth in mobility.”

Case projections for October into the beginning of November show ranges from well below 500 per day all the way up to more than 5,000 per day.

The group noted that uncertainty remains because it’s still “too early” to see the impact of increased contacts with the recent return to schools and workplaces, as well as the increased time people will spend indoors as the weather gets colder.

The table also noted that uncertainty remains with regards to vaccine effectiveness against infection.