Russia unlikely to deploy nukes in Ukraine conflict, says ex-NATO deputy

A former top NATO diplomat says she doesn't believe Russian President Vladimir Putin would use nuclear weapons if western countries intervene to stop his invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

Putin warned this week that members of the western military alliance would face "consequences that you have never encountered in your history" — a warning that many observers interpreted as a threat to use the nuclear option.

But Rose Gottemoeller, who served as NATO's deputy secretary general from 2016 to 2019, said that while the warning was "stark," it's a threat the Russian leader has used before.

"In fact, I think he's been very careless in that regard, because if you're crying wolf all the time with your ultimate weapon it leads, in fact, to a weakening of your deterrent," she said in an interview airing this weekend on CBC's The House.

"But I do note on this occasion he did not specifically rattle his nuclear sabre. So, at the end of the day, I am thinking that although he was trying to act tough and very threatening ... he has said worse in the past."

Canada joined other NATO countries this week in imposing economic sanctions on Putin, members of his cabinet and other Russians who have made their fortunes through personal or business connections with the Russian president.

Putin's decision to send troops into Ukraine follows weeks of Russian military buildup along the border — and his repeated claims that he was not preparing an invasion.

News reports from Ukraine say the Russian advance has met stiff resistance. Fighting remains intense in and around the capital Kyiv, forcing thousands to flee to the west while others take shelter in the city's deep underground metro stations.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO and U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO leaders have ruled out direct military intervention.

But the alliance is providing military equipment and weapons. And on Friday, NATO leaders agreed to send parts of its 40,000-troop response force to Eastern Europe to help protect allies who feel threatened by the invasion.

Canada has put 3,400 troops on standby. It's also sending another 460 troops to bolster the 900 Canadian Forces members already in Latvia.

The question now is whether these measures will help. Could NATO have done more to deter Russian aggression as Putin moved more and more troops to the border?

"Well, one can always look back and say perhaps more Javelin [missile systems] could have been sent, more defensive weapons could have been sent. More joint training. More exercises," Gottemoeller said.

"I suppose there could have been more done, but to be honest with you, I don't think anything was going to deter Vladimir Putin from this course, as dangerous and destructive as it is for the Russian military."