Ron vs. Don: Why DeSantis may be able to defeat the Trump juggernaut
CBC
The technical issues that plagued the launch of Ron DeSantis's 2024 Republican presidential bid on Twitter were certainly a poor start to kick off his national campaign, but there are far more pressing challenges facing the Florida governor.
Most significantly, while polls suggest DeSantis is the second most popular pick among Republicans, he has officially entered the race down more than 30 points from the front-runner in the RealClearPolitics national average polls: former president Donald Trump.
After his big re-election months ago, DeSantis has sputtered along, his poll numbers cratering as he faces off against a challenger who has a hard-core base of support that no other candidate can match.
With Trump mounting such a significant lead, does DeSantis even stand a chance of catching up?
"Primaries are volatile things. Candidates rise and fall because voters don't pay that much attention early in the process," said Danny Hayes, a political science professor at George Washington University. "If anybody is writing off DeSantis right now, they're probably not looking clearly at the situation."
"Beating Trump, of course, will be difficult. But there's a lot that can happen between now and the Iowa caucuses."
Despite the poll gap with Trump, it's certainly not all bad news for the Florida governor. Trump's ongoing legal woes could be a potential boon for the DeSantis campaign. This month, Trump was found liable of sexual abuse and defamation of magazine writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s.
This week, a court date for his criminal trial in Manhattan relating to hush money payments to women who alleged extramarital affairs was set for March 2024, right in the heart of primary season.
As well, Trump may also face charges over his handling of classified documents and his actions regarding the 2020 election.
And DeSantis does have some political advantages that could give him a legitimate shot at winning, political experts say, advantages which include name recognition.
"The hardest thing to do when you're running for president is to get famous," said Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former political editor of Fox News Channel. "To reach the persuadable voter, you need for them first to know who you are."
Someone like South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who just entered the race with over $20 million but still polls in single digits, will have to spend that money on boosting his name recognition, Stirewalt said.
"Ron DeSantis does not have to do that," he said."And that has extraordinary benefits, as Donald Trump proved when he leveraged television celebrity into the Republican nomination and the presidency."
DeSantis has become a national figure in the U.S., in part because of his large margin of victory in the 2022 midterms.
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