'Rock solid' majority opposed to Alberta independence: Abacus Data poll
CBC
About a quarter of Albertans support the province leaving Canada, but the majority — nearly two-thirds — are against it, according to a new poll from Abacus Data.
The poll also suggests that more than half of Albertans believe Premier Danielle Smith would vote in favour of separation in a referendum, despite Smith’s repeated position that she prefers a strong and sovereign Alberta, within a united Canada.
Abacus surveyed 1,000 Albertan adults between Feb. 20 and 25. That followed Smith’s televised address to the province on Feb. 19, where she discussed frustrations with federal policies and laid the groundwork for additional referendum questions.
The poll was conducted online with a random sample. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they either strongly or somewhat support an independent Alberta, with 64 per cent either strongly or somewhat disagreeing. Nine per cent of respondents were undecided.
The numbers are similar to a recent survey on separation by the Angus Reid Institute.
The Abacus poll also suggests many are firmly entrenched in their position. Of those opposed to separation, 56 per cent said they were strongly against it. Thirteen per cent of those in support were strongly in favour.
“There is this majority opinion in the province that I think is probably rock solid, and despite a significant effort to persuade them, they're not likely going to move,” said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data.
Support for independence was highest in rural areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary, with 35 per cent of respondents in favour.
Groups most highly opposed to the idea include Albertans aged 60 and over and women.
Of the respondents who voted for the NDP in the last provincial election, 82 per cent oppose independence. The numbers are a little closer among those who voted UCP in 2023 — 42 per cent support independence, while 48 per cent oppose it.
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, said he thinks there are many Albertans who would not be inclined to share their honest opinions with a pollster, and that his group is hearing from many in favour of separation.
“Polls are irrelevant, as far as we're concerned here. We're not paying attention to them,” he told CBC News.
"We're going to go talk to every Albertan one at a time," he said. "And by the time the vote comes, we'll have talked to a lot of Albertans. And, you know, maybe they'll understand what we're talking about and maybe they won't. And you know what, I've always said, this is a democratic process, so I'll live with the results."
WARNING: This story discusses child sexual abuse material and contains graphic details of alleged sexual assault
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