Report predicts Hudson Bay polar bears could disappear in a few decades

Two subpopulations of polar bear in Hudson Bay will disappear in the next few decades if the world isn't able to cap global warming at 2 C, according to a new multi-disciplinary study. 

The report, published in the journal Nature, Communications Earth and Environment on Thursday, looks at various scenarios of warming and what it would do to sea ice, seals, and polar bears. 

Julienne Stroeve, a professor at the University of Manitoba and the report's lead author, said with more than two degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, both the southern and western populations of the Hudson Bay polar bear will become extirpated. That means they'd be extinct locally. 

Experts have warned for years that the Hudson Bay polar bear population could go extinct within a few decades. The latest study concludes with what it calls a more "alarming outlook" — that the local extinction is expected to happen sometime between the 2030s and 2060s. 

"I think we need to start telling people, sadly, the harsh realities of what's to come if we don't do anything," said Stroeve. "It's going to transform the entire Arctic region beyond contemporary recognition." 

David Kuptana, an elder from Ulukhaktok, N.W.T. who shares his home with different polar bears, said this past hunting season was "really good." 

The N.W.T. is home to the Southern Beaufort Sea, Northern Beaufort Sea and Viscount Melville Sound polar bear subpopulations. A limited number of tags to hunt from each subpopulation are given out each year. 

Kuptana said his family brought in a number of bears of a good size — a sign, he says, that the population living in his region is doing well. But he has noticed some things that cause him to worry. 

For example, their stomachs are nearly empty. 

"The bears we used to catch long ago used to be very healthy, very fat," he said. Now, they don't have as much fat. He's worried the open water around his Arctic home is making it hard for them to hunt. 

"If they can't find food, they will keep breaking into cabins and looking for something to eat or coming into town," he said.

Kuptana said he also didn't see any polars bears with cubs this year, though he did spot their tracks. 

Geoff York, the senior director of research and policy at Polar Bears International, said polar bears are showing up on shore more often because of changes happening out on the sea ice. 

"That can definitely give the impression that there are more bears in general, and without question, there are more bears around communities in some cases," he said.