Putin's iron grip severely weakened after Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow
CBC
When Yevgeny Prigozhin angrily vowed Friday evening that he and thousands of his Wagner fighters were going to march into Russia to take aim at what he sees as the country's incompetent and corrupt military leadership, the Kremlin called the act mutiny and threatened to imprison him for 20 years.
But 24 hours later, when a Wagner convoy was just 200 kilometres from the capital, there was an abrupt about-face.
It appeared that the country had avoided a potential coup — and Prigozhin, a Russian prison.
He waved to a small crowd of supporters as he was driven in a black van in Rostov-on-Don, a city near Ukraine's border.
The Kremlin says he was destined for Belarus. Officials say a deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to de-escalate the situation and avoid bloodshed.
While a lot remains unclear about the agreement and the tumultuous period that led up to it, political observers believe the attempted rebellion has left President Vladimir Putin more vulnerable.
"I don't see how Putin survives this because Putin would be so weakened by having to make a deal with a guy who openly challenged him," said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at Johns Hopkins Advanced School for International Studies, who is currently teaching at Cardiff University in Wales.
The Kremlin maintains that Putin never left Moscow even though there were reports that government planes left the capital.
It was more than 12 hours after Prigozhin announced his rebellion that Putin made an address on state television where he spoke about treason and betrayal and said the "internal turmoil is a mortal threat" to Russia's statehood.
Anti-terror measures were put in place in the city of Moscow, and roadblocks were set up as well as positions manned by police officers with machine guns.
When it looked like Wagner was going to enter the capital Radchenko told CBC News that he saw three possible scenarios: he thought it could lead to Putin being ousted, to Prigozhin's demise, or to a violent civil war.
Instead, Prigozhin has reportedly left the country, and Kremlin officials say they dropped criminal charges against him.
Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, says Russia won't be prosecuting the Wagner fighters that advanced toward the capital.
Radchenko is highly skeptical of the apparent agreement for de-escalation, as he says that history has shown Putin, Prigozhin and Lukashenko can't be trusted.