Putin's army is stumbling in Ukraine. Did the West get Russia's war machine wrong?

Russia's road to victory in Ukraine has been blocked by angry civilians, its broken-down tanks dragged off (and mocked) by farmers in tractors, its soldiers targeted by surprisingly successful Ukrainian resistance.

But one month into the invasion, it seems Russia's worst enemies have been its own: overconfidence and under-preparedness.

The Russian invasion has devastated major cities and driven more than 10 million people from their homes, according to the United Nations, and thousands of civilians are believed to have died. And yet, Ukraine hasn't fallen.  

"Unrealistic political aims and timetables have driven an unsound [Russian military] strategy," tweeted Russia expert Michael Kofman, while think-tanks and military observers conclude that Ukrainian forces have "defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war." 

And Russian leader Vladimir Putin, described by U.S. President Joe Biden as "a worthy adversary" before the invasion, is now dismissed at the White House as a "war criminal" and a "brutal dictator." 

How did the West get Russia so wrong? 

"The history of war is replete with the bigger side getting their asses kicked," said Carleton University's Stephen Saideman, director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network. 

Saideman points to mistakes made by Putin, based partly on misinformation fed to him.

Putin sits in the Kremlin, bitterly denouncing Russian "traitors" and reportedly issuing arrest orders for spy chiefs responsible for delivering intelligence before the invasion. On Wednesday, it was announced that one of Putin's top aides, Anatoly Chubais had resigned.

At a rally in support of Russian forces last week, Putin recited Orthodox scripture and reaches back to 18th century military victories. The storms of war "will contribute to Russia's glory," he told the crowd at the Moscow Stadium.

"He was led to believe that the Ukrainians would fold immediately," said Saideman, adding he suspects no one dared tell him Russian forces wouldn't prevail. "It's very difficult for authoritarian regimes to assess themselves because there's a culture of lying and a lack of accountability because there are serious consequences to disappointing Putin."

That seems to have had an impact on morale all the way down to the troops on the ground, who were initially led to think theirs was no more than a training mission. 

"We were told that we would have joint drills in Belarus. That's it," said Dmitry Astakhov, a Lieutenant-Colonel with a Russian police rapid deployment force. He spoke to media earlier in March after being captured. "We did not really believe that we would enter Ukraine's territory."

"The Russian command didn't have trust in Russian soldiers, and their will to fight against Ukrainians," concludes Konrad Muzyka from this. He is a military analyst with Rochan Consulting based in Poland. "Russians consider Ukrainians to be their brothers, and find it difficult to fight them."