Prediction markets face questions on bets on the Iran war, from nuclear detonation to regime change

Prediction markets are facing backlash over bets related to war, with Polymarket recently archiving some predictions on nuclear detonation.

The Iran war has shone a light on what prediction markets regard as unacceptable subjects for betting, as they faced backlash when users placed hundreds of millions of wagers on everything from missile strikes to regime change.

Polymarket last week archived markets that had allowed bets on the timing of a nuclear detonation, after the contracts attracted hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Most of the contracts fell under a market titled "Nuclear weapon detonation by…?" that allowed users to wager on whether the event would occur by a certain date, according to webpages saved in the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine.