Pope's 'secret' peace plan underscores NATO's lack of a political strategy on Ukraine

As Ukraine prepares to unleash its long-anticipated counter-offensive, an important (some might say divine) voice is floating the notion of peace talks to end the war with Russia.

The Vatican revealed last weekend that it's pushing behind the scenes for negotiations — an initiative that follows on China's somewhat vague but high-profile bid last winter to nudge the brutal, 14-month-old conflict toward negotiations.

On Sunday, following a visit to Hungary and a meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Pope Francis spoke of a secret peace "mission" involving Russia's war on Ukraine.

Francis offered no details but told journalists travelling with him that he's "available to do anything" to bring about a negotiated settlement.

People on all sides of the conflict want peace. But many Ukrainians, and some of their supporters in the West, regard the timing of such pleas for negotiations — just as Ukraine moves up to nine new western-equipped combat brigades into position to retake land seized in the early days of the 2022 invasion — with deep suspicion.

For them, the impulse to dismiss the current round of peace overtures — to treat them as playing into Moscow's strategy of dividing the West and forcing negotiations to consolidate Moscow's hold on occupied territory — is strong.

But one of Canada's former top diplomats says this country does have a role to play in getting Moscow to the negotiating table — on Ukraine's terms.

Kerry Buck, who served as Canada's ambassador to NATO, recently told a House of Commons committee that Russian President Vladimir Putin "has more people to throw at the war in Ukraine and less to lose" — which could make for a very long war.

"A long, grinding war of attrition is in Russia's interests and, in fact, may be their strategy," Buck told the Commons defence committee last month. "They've said as much publicly, hoping to see support from the West start to crumble."

She said Canada has a role to play in pursuing peace both inside and outside of NATO. She said Ottawa could be reaching out to Russia's allies — countries that may hold sway with Putin even though "we may find their positioning less palatable."

Countries such as China and India could be "useful interlocutors with Russia," said Buck — who also noted more broadly that the capacity and institutional expertise of Canada's diplomatic corps needs to be rebuilt at the same time.

"We have to talk to some of the countries that have leverage with Russia, and that is going to be key to bringing about some kind of peace settlement at some point when President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy calls for a peace settlement," she said.

Buck said Global Affairs Canada needs China experts and people "who are close to India who can help apply some pressure to Russia and other places." She said it will take a "full-court press to convince President Putin that it's time to down arms and come to a table."

What NATO lacks at the moment, said one international expert in land warfare, is a "coherent political strategy" to match its effective military strategy in eastern Europe.