Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures
CBC
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023.
As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow.
As Premier Danielle Smith approaches the halfway point in her mandate, over half of Albertans continue to support her United Conservative Party, according to a CBC News poll.
"It's really quite amazing that two years in, she continues to enjoy a honeymoon," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans between May 7 and 21 for CBC News.
"We haven't seen a honeymoon last this long for a politician since the Ralph Klein days," Brown added.
Twenty-four months after Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, the polling suggests the premier continues to hang on to the support that propelled her to a majority in 2023. Now, 52 per cent of decided and leaning Alberta voters say they'd cast a ballot for the UCP.
The poll suggests the UCP would cruise to a majority, winning 61 ridings, while the NDP could drop from the 38 seats it won in 2023 to 26 seats in the provincial legislature.
In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the vote and 49 seats. The NDP captured 44 per cent of the vote share, mostly in Alberta's two major cities.
The recent poll suggests nearly four in 10 Albertans (38 per cent) would vote NDP. Seven per cent of respondents said they remain undecided.
"The numbers are soft for the NDP right now," said Brown in an interview with CBC News. "Approval numbers for the leader are soft right now. It is tough times for the NDP."
Albertans' positive impressions of Smith, in contrast, have ticked up over the past year, according to the survey.
The governing UCP embarked on an ambitious — and often controversial — agenda since winning power two years ago.
Despite worries about "confusion and chaos" from front-line workers regarding the breakup of Alberta's health ministry and the lingering public concerns over an Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, four in 10 Albertans gave Smith high marks on a scale from zero to 10 for how impressed they are with the premier.
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