Poilievre may have wanted to avoid an election. But maybe not like this

Two weeks ago, Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre met in the prime minister's Parliament Hill office in an apparent attempt to find common ground on the government's legislative agenda.

"My message to him is to work with us," Poilievre told reporters afterwards.

Perhaps Carney took that message more literally than Poilievre intended.

Carney had already welcomed two former Conservative MPs to the government side of the House of Commons — Chris d'Entremont in November, then Michael Ma in December. After a pause for January, the floor-crossings resumed on Wednesday with the defection of Matt Jeneroux, who had previously announced his intention to resign his seat as the MP for Edmonton Riverbend.

"This is a time to come together," Carney said in announcing the newest member of the Liberal caucus.

Poilievre was less enthused.

"Mark Carney is trying to seize a costly Liberal majority government that Canadians voted against in the last election through dirty backroom deals," he wrote in a social-media post.

The Conservative leader said much the same thing two months ago after Ma's sudden exit. But now Carney's Liberals really are on the verge of a majority — a majority that would, at the very least, bring a definitive end to the election speculation that pundits and amateur strategists have been entertaining themselves with of late.

Cynically, one might have wondered whether Poilievre's recent enthusiasm for collaboration was inspired, at least in part, by a simple desire to avoid an election. 

To be seen working constructively at a fraught moment for the country might have the potential to improve Poilievre's public image. But more than that, working with the government to pass legislation would make it harder for the government to argue that an election is necessary because of parliamentary obstruction — an argument that Liberals have seemingly been itching to make lately.

And the Conservatives are not in a position where they should obviously want an election — a recent poll by Abacus Data gave the Liberals a seven-point lead, their largest advantage in an Abacus poll since Carney became Liberal leader last spring.

The good news for Poilievre's Conservatives is that Jeneroux's departure makes a spring election that much less likely. The bad news is that it's happening in a way that will only raise more questions about Poilievre's leadership.

If the Liberals were to win byelections in three seats that are currently vacant — University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest and Terrebonne — the governing party would have a narrow majority of 172 MPs. University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest are safe Liberal seats, but Terrebonne, decided by one vote last year before the result was overturned by the courts, is the very definition of a toss-up.

To govern comfortably, they might want another couple seats. But a bare majority would at least allow them to control legislative committees and stave off defeat in the House.