Poilievre hopes young people are listening as he appeals for record turnout

Pierre Poilievre is trying to win over young people when he says he needs the "biggest voter turnout in Canadian history" to reverse a Liberal victory some polls suggest is a foregone conclusion, political experts say.

Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are most likely to support Poilievre's Conservatives — but they're also the least likely demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data.

"He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout," Coletto said.

"He needs to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable, less likely voters, people who may never have voted in an election before."

CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority government come election day.

But voter support has coalesced around the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this election into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator. 

Poilievre made his pitch for a record turnout at a Calgary rally on Friday. Organizers say more than 3,000 people heard his call. 

"Are you going to reach out to all the people who may have given up on life and tell them that there's hope if they vote for a change?" Poilievre told the crowd.

"We need the biggest voter turnout in Canadian history to deliver the change that Canadians need."

In order to win, Coletto said the Conservatives must overcome the advantage the Liberals have among older voters, the demographic most likely to vote.

In 2015, Justin Trudeau became prime minister in part because he won over young voters, Coletto noted. 

"And so in a way — ironically, actually — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the success of Trudeau 10 years ago in getting those less reliable non-voters out this time."

The Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are undercounting their support, something that occurred in the two previous elections, Coletto said.

But he added that the polls missing by one or two percentage points again likely won't change the outcome of this year's election.