P.E.I.'s post-pandemic job recovery remains strong, but volatile

The number of jobs on P.E.I. has grown by seven per cent in the last year, and that strong growth following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic is coming with a lot of change.

In the spring of 2020, about 15 per cent of the jobs on P.E.I. disappeared almost overnight because of transmission prevention measures — about 80 per cent of those jobs from the service sector.

From the beginning, the recovery was erratic, with both the number of jobs and the number of Islanders available for work showing an unusual volatility.

That volatility has continued through 2022, and picked up steam in the last few months.

For example, in 2019 the growth in jobs on P.E.I. was fairly steady. There was growth in eight of the 12 months, with no more than 800 jobs lost and no more than 1,600 gained in any one month. As of October, 2022 featured six months up and three down, but jobs losses have been as high as 3,800 a month and gains as much as 4,300.

Numbers for the participation rate — the proportion of the population already working or actively looking for work — have been similarly changeable. The rate was fairly steady leading up to the pandemic; in 2019 it ranged from 66.1 to 66.8 per cent. However, in 2022 the range has been from 63.6 to 67.2 per cent.

Those numbers suggest a workforce seeking change, particularly among young people.

Islanders aged 15 to 24 are creating most of the volatility in the participation rate.

Youth participation in the workforce does tend to vary more than participation for those aged 25 to 54, or those 55 and over, but it has varied even more radically since the pandemic.

In 2019, participation varied from 69.4 to 72.2 per cent. In 2022, the rate peaked at 74.1 per cent in January before crashing to 54.5 per cent in September, and then recovering to 64.7 per cent in October.

Volatility is largely unchanged for the other two age groups.

An analysis of the different industrial sectors suggests what kinds of change Island workers might be seeking.

The P.E.I. economy has included an average of 85,000 jobs in 2022, which is a 7.3 per cent increase over 2019. But some industrial sectors have grown much more than that, while others have shrunk, leading to a redistribution of how Islanders are earning their paycheques.

For example, 5.4 per cent of Islanders were working in agriculture in 2019. This year it's only 4.0 per cent.