Opportunity to end convoy protest peacefully is slipping away, experts say

As the protest against vaccine mandates heads into its third weekend in Ottawa and spreads to border towns, observers say the window for ending it peacefully is closing.

On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a state of emergency as protest blockades continued to shut down parts of Ottawa's downtown core and portions of Windsor's Ambassador Bridge — a key cross-border supply route.

The move is largely administrative and gives Ford the power to bring in new orders to punish those who block and impede the movement of goods, people and services along critical infrastructure.

Jack Rozdilsky, an associate professor of disaster and emergency management at York University, said there are still ways to obtain a peaceful end to the crisis.

But "every day longer this goes on, it moves in a more dangerous direction where, essentially, it'll reach the point where  the hand of authority is forced," he said.

Police services have come in for heavy criticism over the way they've approached the protests to date. Police have said the situation on the ground is sometimes too volatile to make arrests. In Ottawa, city police have made 25 arrests directly and indirectly related to the protest.

Rozdilsky said the very real risk of injuries and deaths likely explains police reluctance to enforce existing laws and bylaws.

With the protesters in Ottawa camped out near homes, offices and businesses, he said — and with authorities lacking clear intelligence on how much hazardous material they've brought with them — there is also a fire risk to consider.

"There's going to be a number of bad choices that authorities can make to end it,"  he said. "What they're going to have to do is make a choice that will be the best of the worst choices.

"While it's frustrating to suggest why things haven't happened faster, there are alternatives here that could be a lot worse if things start happening quickly."

Part of the problem is the demands made by the protesters themselves, said Andrew Graham, a professor of policy studies at Queen's University with a background in risk management.

While many protesters have flocked to Ottawa to voice their opposition to vaccine mandates, others have said their goal is to force the dissolution of the elected federal government, or to create a logistical nightmare that forces the federal government to repeal all mandates.

The Ambassador Bridge, which links Windsor to Detroit, is a key trade route between Canada and the U.S. that sees about $400 million in commercial goods crossing on a normal day. The bridge has been blocked since Monday afternoon by protesters demanding an end to all pandemic restrictions.

"The thing you look for is the degree of commitment to cause and it's extremely high here. And the degree of commitment to tactics is also extremely high. And usually, when they're there, you've got danger," Graham said.