Ontario just days from COVID-19 case surge similar to Kingston, expert says

Health officials in Kingston, Ont., are issuing a stark message to the rest of Ontario as the area further tightens gathering restrictions while dealing with the highest rate of COVID-19 infection in the province.

As of Friday, the Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington public health unit reported a record number of cases that day and a weekly rate of 350.3 cases per 100,000 residents, which it suspects is mostly due to the spreading omicron variant.

Then from Friday through Sunday, the health unit recorded an additional 359 confirmed cases of the virus — 291 of those in the city of Kingston — and, as of Monday, had 908 active known cases.

The health unit also reported 263 suspected cases of the omicron variant on Monday.

"By this time next week, there's no question omicron will be the dominant variant," said Dr. Gerald Evans, an infectious disease specialist at Queen's University.

Evans points to the fact it took less than four weeks for omicron to surpass all other variants in South Africa, including delta.

About half of new cases are already suspected to be caused by omicron, he said. That has implications for the rest of the province, who will not be far behind experiencing the surge Kingston has seen.

"I think we're probably maybe about three days ahead of the province," he said.

He did say the surge in cases came as a surprise considering the city doesn't have an international airport, and the first confirmed case of omicron was someone who hadn't travelled or had any other risk factors. Omicron then spread rapidly from there.

On Monday, the area's medical officer of health, Dr. Piotr Oglaza, issued a Section 22 order limiting both indoor and outdoor gatherings in the City of Kingston, including public events, to a maximum of five people. The order also affects indoor dining at restaurants and bars.

The order comes into effect at 6 p.m. ET Monday and continues for the next seven days until noon ET next Monday, Dec. 20.

WATCH | New restrictions aim to 'break the chain' of COVID-19 infection:

"Cases are increasing at a concerning rate and it is clear we must take further action to protect our community," Oglaza wrote in a statement. "We have come so far, and as we provide increasing immunity to our community through immunization, we must all be vigilant and keep our community safe."

Indoor dining will also be restricted as restaurants and bars must close between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., except to allow takeout, the health unit wrote.