Ontario environment minister said 'we are on track' to meet 2030 climate targets. Internal docs disagree

Ontario is not on track to hit a key climate change target with less than five years to go, civil servants have told the province's new environment minister — information that appears to contradict his own statements since taking on the portfolio.

The candid assessment from the public service was offered to Todd McCarthy in briefing documents obtained by CBC News through a freedom of information request. The minister was told in March that the province will fall short of hitting its target of a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030.

"With Ontario policies, recent preliminary projections show that Ontario's 2030 emissions are expected to be three (megatonnes) higher than the 2030 emission reductions target," civil servants warn.

The report suggests Ontario has made progress on emissions reductions since 2022. But it notes that the pledge would require the province to reduce its emissions to 142 megatonnes, and it's currently on track to achieve a reduction to approximately 145 megatonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030.

Civil servants also say that actual emissions will vary depending on "market forces, abatement costs and actions taken by industry in response to policies."

The internal projections shared with McCarthy appear to contradict statements he made during Question Period at the legislature earlier this month. On June 5, under questioning from the NDP environment critic Peter Tabuns, McCarthy said the province would hit its climate change targets, lauding Premier Doug Ford's plan to bring down emissions.

"We have a plan, and the plan is working," he said. "We are on track to meet the target by 2030 of reducing the 2005 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent. We're doing that by leading Canada."

McCarthy's office did not respond directly to questions about the contradiction in his statements and the ministry warnings. Spokesperson Alexandru Cioban said the province leads Canada in emissions reductions and "will continue to work to protect our environment, create good-paying jobs, and ensure Ontario remains the best place to live, work, and raise a family."

Ontario launched its climate change plan in 2019, a year after it killed the previous Liberal government's cap and trade climate policy. While the Progressive Conservative plan does not have a consumer carbon tax, it does include an emissions performance standards program, which charges "compliance payments" to induce businesses to lower emissions.

The briefing documents also say the ministry is currently "reviewing both regulation and (the) program in light of broader competitiveness concerns highlighted by U.S. tariff threats and possible changes in federal policy."

Comments about risks associated with the program review have been redacted by the civil service.

Tabuns said he's been skeptical of the government suggestions that they were on-track to meet their climate goals. 

"I don't know whether he reads his briefing book," he said of the minister. "I don't know whether he was simply being dishonest in the legislature, but either way, that's a real problem."

Tabuns said the province's climate targets have always been weak, which makes not hitting them even worse.