Omicron could send up to 1,046 people to Hamilton hospitals by end of February: data

In the worst case scenario, the peak of the Omicron wave could send an average of 40 people to local hospitals and eight or nine people to the intensive care unit every day, show new projections from Hamilton Public Health Services.

The models from Scarsin Forecasting, shown at Monday's board of health meeting, come as Hamilton has the second-highest rate of cumulative COVID-9 hospital patients per 100,000 people in Ontario at 324.

This also comes as local hospitals are struggling to manage the demand for space as the virus continues to infect people.

Data suggests if someone gets Omicron, that person is about 50 per cent less likely to end up in hospital compared to getting infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19. But local epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson said some research from the United Kingdom suggests it may actually be 40 per cent.

With that, the modelling offers scenarios for each case. Both scenarios account for remote learning, public health measures as of Jan. 10, and the city partially vaccinating at least 50 per cent of kids aged five to 11, and fully vaccinate at least 70 per cent of adults, by the end of January.

If Omicron is 40 per cent less likely to send people to hospital, it could send 760 people to hospital from Jan. 10 to Feb. 28. At its peak, in mid-January, it may also send roughly 25 people to hospital per day. 

The good news, Sanderson said, is current hospital data seems to show the city's hospitalizations are in line with the best scenario, which would see about 20 new hospitalizations daily with a peak later in January.

The data also predicts about three new intensive care unit (ICU) patients per day at the peak in mid-January, and 84 ICU patients from Monday until Feb. 28. 

But if Omicron is 50 per cent less likely to send people to hospital, the numbers leap. Instead of 760 hospitalizations, there could be 1,046. Instead of roughly 25 hospitalizations per day, there could be 40.

ICU admissions would jump from 84 to 221, and there could be as many as eight per day, the forecast shows.

Sanderson added 67 per cent of new cases are expected to occur in people aged 20 to 59, while 21 per cent will affect people 19 and under, and 12 per cent will affect people 60 and older.

But nearly half of those 60 and older who get infected will wind up in the hospital, as will nearly half of those 20 to 59, the projections show.

Of the 119 deaths forecasted, people 60 and older would account for 86 per cent of them.

Sanderson said data shows the peak of hospitalizations and ICU admissions will be "far greater" than past waves.