Oil shock deepens as West Asia war escalates. Is a global recession coming?
India Today
The world is already feeling the heat as the West Asia conflict enters its fourth week, pushing global crude oil prices higher. In this article, we speak to experts to understand whether this shock could tip the world toward a recession.
More than three weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a chain of retaliation across West Asia, the conflict has spread far beyond its starting point, hitting energy infrastructure, disrupting shipping routes and pulling multiple countries into what is now a region-wide war.
What began as a geopolitical escalation is now turning into an economic one, and oil is at the heart of it.
Crude oil is trading above $110 a barrel. But the bigger concern is not just the price. It is the disruption to supply. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly a fifth of global oil, is under strain.
Tanker traffic has slowed as ships avoid the route, insurance costs have surged, and repeated attacks and threats have turned one of the world’s most critical energy corridors into a high-risk passage.
At the same time, strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf are beginning to affect refining capacity and gas supply.
That is what is now feeding into a more urgent question. How far is the world from a recession?
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The former RBI Govenor said a 15–20% global energy disruption would require sharp demand cuts, pushing oil to $150–$200 per barrel, risking severe economic stress if the conflict continues another month.
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With multiple energy hubs under threat, the risk to global supply chains has increased sharply. For countries like India, which depend heavily on imports, this means higher costs and tighter supply in the near term.
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