New defence spending goals, timing of Ukraine's admission to NATO expected to dominate summit

As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other NATO leaders head east to Lithuania this week for their annual summit, they'll be accompanied by some pretty pumped-up language and high expectations.

Many veterans of the foreign policy circuit describe what's about to unfold on Tuesday and Wednesday as a "pivotal" moment for the alliance — maybe the most important since the end of the Cold War, or even in the alliance's nearly eight-decade history.

There's one word no one has used — yet — to describe the summit: messy.

The meeting in Vilnius is expected to solidify NATO's return to its roots as a bastion against an empire-minded Moscow.

But there are stark reminders everywhere that this is not going to be a back-to-the-future moment, no matter how nostalgic it all might seem — with generals dusting off long-shelved military plans and procedures to defend members in Europe, old and new alike.

The world is a very different place than it was decades ago, when the Iron Curtain came down. Russia is not the only challenger on the horizon. China and Iran are being viewed as new potential threats.

NATO isn't the same either. It's bigger and (some argue) more politically unwieldy.

Finland has been welcomed into the alliance since last year's summit. Its neighbour Sweden, meanwhile, has been left in the waiting room because of objections from Turkey and Hungary.

The divisions within the alliance run even deeper on another potential flashpoint — the question of whether Ukraine will get a pathway to membership in the alliance after its grinding war with Russia concludes.

A long-running debate over how much the allies spend on their militaries is likely to get more heated and uncomfortable — especially for Canada. Reuters reported on Friday that NATO leaders at the Vilnius summit will agree that the alliance's long-standing benchmark for members' military spending — two per cent of a country's gross domestic product — should be considered an "enduring commitment."

Canada, along with other allies, agreed at the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales to work toward the two per cent goal. 

"I actually think that the two per cent guide, or goal, is a bit of a distraction," said Kerry Buck, Canada's former ambassador to NATO.

"I'm not saying we don't need to spend more on defence. We absolutely do. But what's more important is filling in the capability gaps through procurement that is faster and more targeted to what Canada needs as a member of NATO."

At the moment, Canada spends 1.29 per cent of its GDP on defence appropriations. The Washington Post, quoting leaked Pentagon documents, reported last spring that Trudeau privately told allies Canada would not meet the two per cent target.